The arrest
of Lashkar-e-Taiba operative Abu Jundal, also known by his operational
name Abu Hamza, can be chalked up as another success in India’s
international campaign to make Pakistanbased terrorism unacceptable to
anyone.
The main political gain from the arrest will be its impact on Pakistan.
Islamabad, already isolated on other issues, will be shocked when it realises how the arrest took place.
Various sources say the initial tip-off that Jundal was in Saudi Arabia came from the US intelligence. He was then apprehended by Riyadh, which in turn told India to send a special plane to pick him up. “That a number of governments worked together to help India on this increases the pressure on Pakistan,” says counterterrorism expert Ajai Sahni.
The main political gain from the arrest will be its impact on Pakistan.
Islamabad, already isolated on other issues, will be shocked when it realises how the arrest took place.
Various sources say the initial tip-off that Jundal was in Saudi Arabia came from the US intelligence. He was then apprehended by Riyadh, which in turn told India to send a special plane to pick him up. “That a number of governments worked together to help India on this increases the pressure on Pakistan,” says counterterrorism expert Ajai Sahni.
That the two countries involved were the ones Pakistan has seen as
“allies” would be especially unnerving. Pakistan-based security analyst
Talat Masood said the Saudi role was “significant” – Pakistani-Saudi
security links were even closer than those Islamabad had with the US.
An Indian diplomat says Saudi-India counterterrorism cooperation, once non-existent, has deepened considerably in the past two years. This is partly driven by Saudi interest in India as a future oil client, Lashkar’s drift towards the anti-Saudi Al Qaeda and US pressure. Says a Washington-based LeT watcher: “There is a realisation in Washington that a key means to go after the LeT is to go through the Gulf.” However, says the diplomat, there are still limits – the Saudis will not act against Dawood Ibrahim.
The other gain for India, if Jundal talks, is to provide evidence about the connections between the 26/11 attacks, the Inter-Services Intelligence and the Pakistani state as a whole. “His confession would make it harder to deny the state links to the attack,” says a senior retired Indian intelligence officer. After all, Jundal was in the terrorist control room during 26/11, alongside with senior Lashkar and ISI officers.
New Delhi can expect to throw any new evidence at Pakistan, pushing harder for action against the LET perpetrators of 26/11, many of whom were arrested and then released, including Jundal himself. “He can be used to project our case, provide more hard evidence to Pakistan and the international community,” says Sahni.
There is no serious expectation that Pakistan will act only
because Jundal talks. But in the overall drive to slowly get Islamabad
to accept that terror doesn’t pay, this will help underline at least one
message: when it comes to terror against India, Pakistan has almost no
friends left.
An Indian diplomat says Saudi-India counterterrorism cooperation, once non-existent, has deepened considerably in the past two years. This is partly driven by Saudi interest in India as a future oil client, Lashkar’s drift towards the anti-Saudi Al Qaeda and US pressure. Says a Washington-based LeT watcher: “There is a realisation in Washington that a key means to go after the LeT is to go through the Gulf.” However, says the diplomat, there are still limits – the Saudis will not act against Dawood Ibrahim.
The other gain for India, if Jundal talks, is to provide evidence about the connections between the 26/11 attacks, the Inter-Services Intelligence and the Pakistani state as a whole. “His confession would make it harder to deny the state links to the attack,” says a senior retired Indian intelligence officer. After all, Jundal was in the terrorist control room during 26/11, alongside with senior Lashkar and ISI officers.
New Delhi can expect to throw any new evidence at Pakistan, pushing harder for action against the LET perpetrators of 26/11, many of whom were arrested and then released, including Jundal himself. “He can be used to project our case, provide more hard evidence to Pakistan and the international community,” says Sahni.
There is no serious expectation that Pakistan will act only
because Jundal talks. But in the overall drive to slowly get Islamabad
to accept that terror doesn’t pay, this will help underline at least one
message: when it comes to terror against India, Pakistan has almost no
friends left.
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